The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Not Coming, And This Is Why

The broader crypto space has continued to believe that Bitcoin (BTC) is in a bear market. This narrative is fueled by its recent price crash to $60,000 in February this year, reflecting a 45% decline from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. However, technical analyst Crypto Patel boldly debunks this narrative. He has stated that the bear market “is not coming,” suggesting that the current market drop might be a temporary dip or “liquidity grab,” before a sharp reversal to the upside. 

Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Not Coming

Crypto Patel stated on X that the Bitcoin bear market is not coming because everyone appears to be waiting for it to happen while relying on the four-year cycle theory. The analyst explained his unique thesis by outlining a key price level on his accompanying price chart that could signal a shift in Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Crypto Patel noted that if Bitcoin can close a week above $76,000, it would suggest the current market decline was nothing more than a liquidity grab. He referred to this potential movement as an “expanded fiat deviation,” emphasizing that similar patterns have historically trapped bearish traders at every major cycle low. According to him, once this deviation begins, it could signal that the market is preparing for a major bullish reversal.

Notably, the analyst criticized those who compare the current cycle to the 2018 bear market or the 2022 market crash. Crypto Patel pointed out that, unlike the current market, in 2018, there were no spot ETFs, no Sovereign Wealth Funds accumulating BTC, no public companies holding BTC on their balance sheets, and no states building strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Similarly, in 2022, the analyst highlighted that the market collapse was entirely driven by structural failures rather than a natural cycle top. He stated that the period was marked by widespread leverage fraud, the Luna crash, the FTX collapse, and the meltdown of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital.

In contrast, Crypto Patel noted that the current cycle presents a fundamentally different macro backdrop. He emphasized that institutional inflows are surging as exchange supply hit multi-year lows. Additionally, he noted that the halving-induced supply shock is yet to be priced in. Based on these trends, the analyst suggests that today’s market dynamics are the polar opposite of past cycles.  

Analyst Outlines BTC’s Roadmap Toward $200,000

In his post, Crypto Patel shared a second level after $76,000, which he believes could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $200,000 this cycle. The analyst described the $98,000 resistance area as a trigger, suggesting that a weekly close above this level would not only confirm Bitcoin’s strength but also completely invalidate its bear market thesis.

According to his bullish roadmap, once Bitcoin breaks $98,000, the market could experience a second wave of panic-driven momentum. At this point, he expects the BTC price to start pushing toward $150,000 with no pullbacks before potentially skyrocketing to $200,000.