Ethereum Price Is Running The Same Playbook That Led To 10,000% And 4,000% Surges In The Past

The Ethereum price continues to hold above $2,000, demonstrating noteworthy resilience amid ongoing bearish market conditions. In light of this resilience, crypto market analyst Merlijn The Trader recently shared a new ETH analysis, identifying a recurring historical pattern that has served as a strong bullish signal for the cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, this pattern previously drove gains of over 10,000% and 4,000%, suggesting that a repeat could spark another major rally in this cycle.  

Ethereum Price Chart Repeats Historically Bullish Pattern

In an X post published on Thursday, March 26, Merlijn The Trader shared a three-week price chart highlighting a unique pattern, which he says Ethereum has repeated almost perfectly three cycles in a row. He noted that during each cycle, the pattern unfolded in three distinct phases: a consolidation, a trendline retest, and a parabolic rally. 

In the 2016-2018 cycle highlighted on the chart, the Ethereum price started near the lows of $3-$5. The cryptocurrency consolidated sideways for years in the red box zone between $11.5 and $27.5 while building a rising trendline of higher lows beneath it. When the price finally broke out of that trendline, it went parabolic, rising to roughly $1,400 in 2018, reflecting a massive 10,000% price rally. Following this, Ethereum experienced a major price collapse, wiping out almost 90% of its market value, which dragged its price back down to around $80-$100 by late 2018, completely resetting the cycle.   

Similarly, in the 2018-2021 cycle, Ethereum started from lows around $80-$100, then recovered and slowly entered a long consolidation within the red box around $300-$400. Again, the cryptocurrency was building a rising trendline of higher lows beneath it. Once the cryptocurrency retested this trendline, the breakout was enormous, sending ETH all the way above $4,800 by late 2021 and marking a new all-time high. 

This roughly 4,000% rally was also supported by a surge in DeFi activity and the NFT mania during the cycle. After this jump, Ethereum experienced a similar price collapse to the previous cycle, first dropping hard, then bouncing briefly, before finally crashing again to below $1,000 by mid-2022.

What This Means For The Current Cycle

In the current cycle, Merlijn The Trader’s price chart shows that Ethereum is mirroring past cycle trends exactly. The cryptocurrency has climbed back into a new, much higher red box zone around $3,000-$4,000, with the same ascending trendline forming underneath. The consolidation within this box has been prolonged and choppy, underscoring bearish market conditions and weakness.  

Merlijn The Trader’s projection suggests that this cycle has already completed its consolidation and trendline reset and could now be on the verge of an explosive rally. The analyst outlined two possible scenarios for Ethereum’s next move. He predicts that if ETH continues to hold above $2,000, a breakout from the trendline could occur soon, potentially triggering the historical parabolic surge. However, if the cryptocurrency fails to maintain the $2,000 level, its price could decline once more before staging the anticipated rally.