Bitcoin Mining Capitulation Nears End: Is a BTC USD Price Bottom Forming?

One of the longest, most painful periods of Bitcoin mining stress is finally nearing its end, and the data suggests the worst of the drawdown may be behind us.

The Hash Ribbon indicator, a reliable metric for spotting market bottoms, may be dangerously close to a recovery after three months of capitulation. But, is this just a temporary pause, or is a true Bitcoin price bottom finally forming?

Bitcoin is currently trading below its average production cost of approximately $68,000. This is a rare anomaly, where Bitcoin purchases on the open market are for arguably less than it costs a miner to create it.

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Capitulation happens when the price of Bitcoin drops so low that it is no longer profitable for miners to keep their machines running. Capitulation is actually a necessary reset button.

When the hash rate recovers, it signals that miners are plugging machines back in because profitability has returned.

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Hash Rate Is Falling: And That Could Be the Best News for Buyers

The network’s hash rate has recently dipped versus its longer-term average. This is the mechanism that triggers the buy signal on the Hash Ribbon chart: when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate crosses back above the 60-day average.We are inching closer to that crossover.

Capitulation happens when the price of Bitcoin drops so low that it is no longer profitable for miners to keep their machines running. Capitulation is actually a necessary reset button.

When this happens, inefficient miners are forced to unplug their rigs and sell their Bitcoin reserves just to pay for electricity and debt. This creates a temporary wave of intense selling pressure that drives prices down further. But once these “weak hands” are flushed out of the market, the selling stops, and the network stabilizes.

We are seeing this play out right now. Glassnode data shows we are in one of the longest capitulation events on record. However, the Hash Ribbon metric—which tracks the momentum of mining power—is starting to curl upward, suggesting the miners who survived are stronger and no longer need to panic sell.

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Why Miner Capitulation Has Historically Marked BTC Bottoms

Historically, purchasing Bitcoin during the final stages of a miner capitulation has been one of the most profitable plays in the crypto playbook. Why? because miners are the ultimate smart money—they don’t shut down unless they absolutely have to.

When they finally throw in the towel, it usually marks the point of maximum financial pain, which coincidentally tends to be the market bottom. We saw this exact pattern play out in January 2015, December 2018, and again in November 2022. In each case, the capitulation event cleared out the sellers, leaving a vacuum that buyers eventually filled, sparking a massive rally.

For example, the 2022 bottom occurred near $15,500 exactly when miners were under peak stress. While the current price is much higher, the recent plunge in mining difficulty mirrors those past cycles. If history repeats itself, the end of this miner selling spree could signal the start of a structural recovery.

Hash Rate Is Falling: And That Could Be the Best News for Buyers

The numbers backing this theory are hard to ignore. The network’s hash rate (the total computing power securing Bitcoin) has recently dipped versus its longer-term average. This is the mechanism that triggers the “buy” signal on the Hash Ribbon chart: when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate crosses back above the 60-day average.

We are inching closer to that crossover. According to data from checkonchain, Bitcoin is currently trading below its average production cost of approximately $66,000. This is a rare anomaly. It means you can currently buy Bitcoin on the open market for arguably less than it costs a miner to create it.

Think of it like buying a house for less than the cost of the bricks and labor used to build it. This “deep value” zone usually doesn’t last long because smart money steps in to scoop up the discounted coins. When the hash rate recovers, it signals that miners are plugging machines back in because profitability has returned—often driven by a rising price.

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Is a Bitcoin Price Bottom Actually Forming Right Now?

So, is the bottom in? The evidence for a price floor is building. When Bitcoin trades below that critical production cost—which acts as a “soft floor” for the market—it becomes incredibly attractive to long-term holders. We have seen major support forming around the cost basis of these large network participants.

However, we are not out of the woods yet. The $60,000 psychological level is the line in the sand. If the miner capitulation drags on and the price fails to reclaim the production cost level quickly, the financial stress could force another round of selling from leveraged mining firms.

But here is the bullish flipside: if the Hash Ribbons flash a buy signal and price momentum aligns, we could see a repeat of the post-capitulation rallies of 2019 and 2023. The selling exhaustion from miners removes a massive weight from the market’s shoulders, allowing demand to finally push prices upward.

What to Watch as Miner Capitulation Runs Its Course

You don’t need to guess where the market is going—just watch the data. Keep a close eye on the Hash Ribbon metric over the next week; a confirmed crossover is the golden ticket traders are waiting for. Also, watch the $66,000 level.

If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold that production cost significantly, it confirms the bottom is likely in. But if we drift below $60,000, be prepared for one last shakeout before the recovery begins.

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